starting with the usual preamble about Bush and Kerry being “neck and neck” and the election being “too close to call”. This may be true, but most of the polls I’ve seen have Bush leading consistently by a point or two or three. Whilst this is certainly within the margin of error, I can’t help thinking that were the position reversed the BBC would be reminding us at each Bulletin that ‘Kerry is just ahead’ and ‘leading the race’ rather than pushing the “neck and neck” line so desperately.
Among the BBC Ten O’Clock News (WMV, 256Kbps) election coverage was this live exchange (starts 5’45” into the bulletin) between Huw Edwards in Washington and Matt Frei in Florida:
Huw Edwards: Well now let’s get the latest word from both campaigns tonight. Matt is in Florida and Gavin [Hewitt] is in New Hampshire. I’ll talk to you first Matt. Erm, What is the message that President Bush is now focusing on in these last forty-eight-hours?
Matt Frei: Vote, vote, vote and please vote for me, and do it even if you’re a discerning Democrat or an Independent, not just the conservative base of the Republican Party. That’s really what he’s been saying the last few days. I went to a rally this morning and people don’t really listen to what he’s got to say any more, they just listen to that plea, go and vote. Two interesting details here – tomorrow, the President will go to six states in one day, the final swing. And, as we speak, Dick Cheney, erm, who’s not in the best of health, er, at the best of times, is travelling eight hours to Hawaii to be there for one and a half hours to persuade people in a place that wasn’t even a swing state until last week. Conclusion: they are trying to get hold of every single vote they can. Outwardly they’re very confident. Inwardly they’re worried.
Huw Edwards: Well, I was going to ask you about the inward feelings, the private feelings Matt, um, what are they telling you about the patterns of voting that they’re likely to see on Tuesday and which areas concern them most?
Matt Frei: Take this queue that’s dwindling behind me now. This has been a queue that’s been here all day long. People have waited for five or six hours. They have never seen a turn out like this before. This doesn’t bode terribly well for Tuesday to be honest, because one senior election official told us he doesn’t think they can actually accomodate all the voters without opening the polls later, so this is potentially a huge nightmare of recounted ballots, of disputes. There are thousands of lawyers in Florida as well as in Ohio and many other states who are waiting to pounce on this election if there is, if the election result is within the margin of litigation, and that’s about two percent in each state. So don’t expect to see what you saw last time, four years ago, which was a simple recount, if it is that close expect to see something much worse.
Huw Edwards: Gavin, let me turn to you in New Hampshire. We heard Matt there say that privately the Bush team might be worried. What’s the Kerry team telling you tonight?
That was their exchange in its entirety – nothing added, nothing left out. Leaving aside Frei’s failure to answer the second question (instead waffling on about queues and the likelihood of the lawyers – other than Kerry and Edwards – winning the presidential election), the interesting point for me (and this blog) was Frei’s bit about Cheney, “who’s not in the best of health, er, at the best of times” – as if he’d be standing for Vice President if his health wasn’t likely to last another four years, “travelling eight hours to Hawaii” – as if he’s going by rowing boat rather than by campaign jet, and how this is then spun into Frei’s conclusion that “Inwardly they’re worried”, repeated by Edwards “We heard Matt there say that privately the Bush team might be worried”.
Among the spin about Cheney’s health and the apparent gruelling sacrifice of his journey to Hawaii, Frei is right that Hawaii “wasn’t even a swing state until last week”. What Frei did not tell us is that the reason Hawaii wasn’t regarded as a swing state until last week was that it was seen by both campaigns as being a sure-fire Democrat win, and therefore not much worth bothering about. This is confirmed by the BBC’s own US Elections Map – where Hawaii is described as “one of the safest states in the US for the Democrats and John Kerry should easily carry the state’s four electoral votes” and where 2000’s vote is recorded as 55.8% Gore, 37.5% Bush!
What has changed is that polls are showing Hawaii may be within reach of the Bush campaign – hence Cheney’s campaign trip there. And yet Frei spins this apparent good news for the Bush campaign as being a sign of their desperation. Give us a break! If the Bush campaign is as worried as Frei claims then surely they’d be shoring up their position in larger, closer, more accessible states with more electoral college votes, rather than going the extra mile(s) to snatch, to coin a phrase, “one of the safest states in the US for the Democrats”!
Inwardly they’re worried. — note that it’s just Frei’s impression, spun from the standard campaign exhortation to get out the vote. No one actually told him anything — what else is new? — and he’s winging it again.
Also, Hawaii is a safe state to chatter about because the time change, five hours behind New York, means events on the mainland will likely make HI irrelevant early on.
More helpful, by far, would be to focus on New Jersey, among the first to report. A close vote there means a bad night for Democrats; a Republican win (unlikely) suggests a Bush landslide.
But NJ’s EST and Frei needs all the time he can get to bustle his pissy crinolines…Remember: this is the shabby crew that predicted in April that Howard Dean would be next president and, in 2000, that the election would turn on the vote in Louisiana.
We have to pay for this crap, under penalty of imprisonment.
WAY, WAY OFF TOPIC
But still I am surprised that ITV, who use Jonathon Dimpleby as their principal political interviewer, should allow him a couple of hours to expound his Lib Dem views (ITV last night at 23:10, more to come later).
Will ITV still employ him in a “neutral” role for future Sun lunchtime progs?
Hawaii only has 4 EVs, and it’s very far away. That Cheney has taken an eight-hour trip there does highlight the fact that both sides think it’s going right down to the wire in the electoral college this year.
While you might be right about what the BBC would be saying if Kerry were ahead by 1-2% according to (some) poll averages, that isn’t really the point: it would be irresponsible to claim either side was ahead at this stage, so the Beeb is making the right call. For what it’s worth, Kerry’s predicted to win on electoral-vote.com today, although yesterday GWB was ahead.
Polls are notoriously unscientific. Look how wrong they got the scale of the Labour election win in 1997. People are known to lie to pollsters to such degree that there is ‘lie factor’ of about 20% used in the equation to calculate the point’s difference. You can see why it’s not an exact science and why the BBC or any other news organisation would not want to call it either way until all the votes are counted and the lawyers have gone to bed. I think it’s also fair to say the Bush administration is worried and I’m sure Kerry is too…
Yep, polls are unscientific and should be taken with a pinch of salt. Yep, I think the BBC is (probably) correct in this case to call it even. I wouldn’t stick my neck out in public one way or the other at present. Hoever, Andrew is also correct in pointing out that if Kerry has a consistent lead, even by 1-3% points, the BBC would be stating it. This to me is the point.
After the events of Florida last time, I doubt it. I’m not sure there’s an ‘angle’ here as the coverage I’ve seen on the BBC is pretty similar(in tone)to ITV.
“…the coverage I’ve seen on the BBC is pretty similar(in tone)to ITV.”
Which dosn’t mean anything as ITV has much the same soft-left bias as the BBC. This seems pretty much the standard amongst “non-partisan” media and probably reflects world view of the typical journalist rather than any intention by those institutions.
But Alan, surely if the news output of private broadcasters was any more left wing than your average TV news viewer then the market would correct it? I’ve seen the evil communist Sky corporation be criticised on here for left wing bias in its news output? Any theories?
This is how the BBC report the close contest:-
Three polls show that Bush and Kerry are even…
(then almost as an afterthought)
apart from some others that show Bush with a 2% lead….
And here’s the BBC showing calm, resolute Kerry with mad, voracious George:-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/default.stm
An interesting piece…
I;ve been struck by the headline use of the term “statistical dead heat”. This is a spin on the old warning of the scope for statistical error that used to be given (quite rightly) when polls were quoted. But this is teh first time I can recall it being used as the headline treatment when Bush so often has a poll lead.
David Field
Regarding electoral fraud etc., I note that I have never heard a BBC reported referred to the practice of illegal voter registration by illegal immigrants. This practice which could well run into 100,000s and perhaps millions of votes (particularly if you look at the cumulative effect over say the last thirty years)clearly favours the Democrats who have always had a strong base among new immigrants.
Why is this never mentioned I wonder? Surely the BBC isn’t BIASED!!!
David
From the link that Eamonn highlighted:
“But most agree the campaign will be won by the candidate who successfully brings his supporters to the polls…”
Y’don’t say!
More incisive political analysis from Auntie Beeb.
A withering, hyper-critical report on Kerry campaigning in NH can be found here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3970605.stm
My arse.
Its posted by a Jill McGivering, a name new to me. Where does the BBC find these idiots? Really, I get the impression there’s a production line of reporter-clones under White City churning out armies of left-wing drones to head out into BBC world.
Only the parties'(very expensive) internal polls matter — and they won’t be leaked by either campaign.
I’ve seen no basis at all for concluding Cheney’s trip to Hawaii is the desperate act of a sick man in a losing party. To believe that is to buy into Frei’s spin. The internal polling could just as easily point to a solid win, so the trip was gravy.
Hold that gravy thought: Do you really think the 200-odd BBC folks shipped over to supplement the normal bureau staff either have a clue or represent good value for licence-payers money?
If Bush wins a solid victory, which I believe is likely, the media bloodbath will be something to cherish. Beeb will bleed bad.
I’m praying, Wally, I’m praying.
Even New Labour types are getting it:
http://www.stephenpollard.net/001840.html
Pete – a genuine enquiry. How can anyone believe that Bush is good for UK interests? I can appreciate the arguments that he is the best man from the US domestic point of view, and that he is the least bad candidate from the UK point of view in this particular election, but you appear to be showing ENTHUSIASM??!!
Assuming you’re British then why??
Hi David,
Speaking of immigrants, there is one immigrant community in which the Republicans have the upper hand and that is in Florida’s Cubans. Unlike the Dems, though, Bro Shrub had a huge swearing-in ceremony for them all several years ago in a stadium, so many are now legal.
As for statistical dead heats in the Electoral College, even Gallup isn’t saying anything else http://www.gallup.com/poll/GPDB/
Not sure what their spin’s supposed to be if they see it as a dead heat.
However, I will stick my neck out and say it will go to George Bush…
Apart from football I can’t think of an issue that unites humanity across the world more than hatred of George Bush.
For the sake of having something to bond with foreign people on holiday over he can’t be allowed to lose. And he won’t.
I really don’t see how you guys can whinge about the reports of the candidates recent campaigning. The Bush write up is complimentary, saying he is a good speaker who strikes a chord with his audience. Both illustrate how hard each candidate is working.
Sometimes you look far too hard for this BBC bias. Even the photos on the front page? Come on! I could say Bush looks the more favoured by looking at those photos. Look at all those people dying to shake his hand and say hello! Kerry on the other hand hardly has ayone there.
RB
Yep, I’m British. If I showed enthusiasm its for various reasons on various levels:
On a domestic level ‘Bush or Kerry’ is irrelevent. Britain’s future is in the hands of the British people
I don’t actually LIKE Bush. I’m a libertarian and have many reservations about him (apart from the WoT)
Bush however, stands like a shining beacon against Kerry, a worse candidate it would be hard to imagine
I’m praying because I truly believe a Kerry presidency would be disastrous for the world
I’m also praying because the looks on the faces of Michael Moore and all of those twisted, intolerant, screechy, lefty, nasty, vile anti-Bush types will truly be a joy to behold if Bush wins
Bush would also be supported by Eastern European and Russian immigrants. And Vietnamese and Koreans. All are strongly anti-Communist and remember well who was on their side — and who wasn’t — during the Cold War. Also, he does track strongly with Hispanics (for a Republican president) — at least legal Hispanics who’ve been here long enough to make their fortunes.
His brother married to a Latina doesn’t hurt either.
Pete: I’m almost hoping Kerry WILL win and unleash disaster on the world. Then we could get rid of the Nasty-Lefty types forever — or at least for a very long time. . .but unfortunately the price would be rather high. We could be selecting the next President after Kerry with pebbles thrown into a stone pot.
The Eastern Europeans and Vietnamese people I know don’t share Susan’s characterisation of their political views (I don’t know any Koreans or Russians very well).
Perhaps this is because the ones who hate freedom and are nostalgic for their oppressors moved to Islamofascist, communistical Britain, while the ones who love freedom moved to the US. Heh.
Susan
Funny you should say that, the thought has crossed my mind too. A Kerry win would see me sit back, arms crossed, saying “Come on then you loonies. We’ve have four years of BUSHITLER!! and BUSH LIED PEOPLE DIED!!. Let’s see your liberal hero sort out all the shit in the world.”
As you say though, the consequences too frightening and the stakes too high in 2004. The left would be out of office for a long time. that’s if there was an office left.
PD opines: Sometimes you look far too hard for this BBC bias.
Frei whines: The president is slipping in many states…Around the Bush campaign, the mood music is not that positive, Hugh, it has to be said….he will give a final stump speech in Ohio…after polls close and that smacks to some as desperation. –Ten o’Clock News, tonight.
Some? Desperation? Who? When? Why?Hold those words in memory…they will fry Frei.
Your licence fee asleep at the wheel. Again.
The fact that Kerry is also extremely rude about the Iraq war, continuously insisting that the US has neglected its allies strikes me that he wouldn’t be suitable for British interests.
“fingers crossed, saying “Come on then you loonies. We’ve have four years of BUSHITLER!! and BUSH LIED PEOPLE DIED!!. Let’s see your liberal hero sort out all the shit in the world.”
As you say though, the consequences too frightening and the stakes too high in 2004. The left would be out of office for a long time. that’s if there was an office left”.
Don’t count on it. Remember the examples from the USSR. Socialism might work, but not the model adopted there. If Kerry’s election is the failure you hope for then it’ll be because of the military industrial complex, the media and so on. just can’t win with these chaps…
Wonderful moment from the Kerry/Edwards channel (sorry, the Today programme) this morning, when Newt Gingrich accused James Naughtie of talking “liberal gibberish”. It was also great to hear Naughtie gibbering in reply (I mean, how dare a far right politician question the liberal-left mindset of the BBC. Whatever next!).
“I’m almost hoping Kerry WILL win and unleash disaster on the world. Then we could get rid of the Nasty-Lefty types forever..” Nurse! The screens please! Another case of paranoid neo-con-itis…
God, some you of are so hysterical its laughable. Kerry will unleash disaster on the world? Please explain Susan.
Whoever wins tonight things really won’t change all that much in regards to the rest of the world. Neither candidate is gonna want another war after Iraq unless it is *REALLY* necessary. The funds aren’t there, nor will the public backing be unless like I said it really is a last resort.
The only difference is Kerry has said he will try and bring old allies back into the fold whereas Bush will be out there largely on his own. So how is Kerry’s approach going to unleash disaster?
Kerry is a wimp in the Jimmy Carter mode. Carter was a complete disaster and so will Kerry.
Laugh at me if you want to but there’s no other word for them when 45 Republican offices have been burglarized, vandalized and windows broken and bomb threats given against their workers. I haven’t heard of any Democrat headquarters being vandalized or harassed in this manner.
Pim Fortuyn, Dutch anti-immigrant poltician, murdered two years ago, by a leftist thug.
Theo Van Gogh “right-wing” film maker murdered today for the crime
of criticizing the leftists’ favorite religion. Free speech dead and buried in Holland today. But it’s okay, the Beeb has identified Mr. Van Gogh’s filmmaking partner, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, (a black ex-Muslim immigrant) as “right-wing” so his murder doesn’t really count. Just what to expect for being “rightwing,” of course.
Thugs. No other word for ’em.
Susan you really are starting to lose the plot now. So this left wing conspiracy is set to take over the world and turn half of us into thugs now?
What are you saying exactly? You keep going off on different tangents without making any clear points. Its just a relentless stream of anti-left opinion. So all republicans are good as you “haven’t heard of any Democrat headquarters being vandalized or harassed in this manner.” and all democrats/lefties are bad because they harras, vanadalize and commit murder? Oh and Kerry will unleash disaster on the world?
Susan, its an election. Not Armageddon
“But it’s okay, the Beeb has identified Mr. Van Gogh’s filmmaking partner, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, (a black ex-Muslim immigrant) as “right-wing”
Where does it say this?
Pim Fortuyn was murdered by animal rights nutter, I’m not sure you can shoehorn him into ‘leftist’. ‘Extremist’, maybe..
Oh and Susan in what you were saying about republican offices being attacked. The writer at this link seems to think there have been cases of it happening to democrat offices as well:
http://www.reachm.com/amstreet/archives/2004/10/07/thugs-to-the-right-of-us-thugs-to-the-left-of-us/
The attack of Republican offices is just another story the BBC suppressed deemed unworthy of placing before the licence-paying public, along w/ the activities of ACORN.
Already, with polls barely open, there are solid reports of rigged ballot machines in PA and of intimidation by gun-waving leftist thugschampions of the oppressed and disenfranchised.
Anyone willing to predict the BBC will cover this adequately or at all?
My bad: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041102/ap_en_mo/netherlands_filmmaker_slain_4
It was the AP who described Hirsi Ali as “right-wing”, not the BBC.
Most MSM sound so much alike these days, it’s hard to keep them straight.
Wally thumper: someone poured white powder all over the floor of a voting precinct in New Jersey — in a heavily Republican precinct of course. Shut down the precinct for two hours while they checked it wasn’t Hazmat.
RedKen: The “animal rights nutter” said he killed Fortuyn specifically because of his stand on Muslim immigration. Doesn’t sound too much like a “right-winger” to me.
In fact, the guy who popped Fortuyn sounds like someone your namesake would like to invite in to tea. . .
PD: What disaster can Kerry unleash upon the world. Off the top of my head, I’m somewhat worried that his announcement of a timeline for removing troops from Iraq will encourage Iran to invade Iraq and set up shop(they’ve always wanted to control the Shiite holy places at Karbala and Najaf). Iran is only a couple of years away from developing a nuclear warhead (capable of hitting Europe BTW). Then we’ll have a nuclear-armed Iran with lots of room to spread their new nukes around in. . .I didn’t support the IRaq war in the first place but now that the deed is done, we need to keep Iran out of it and the concilliatory mewlings that Kerry is making toward Iran is kind of worrying. . .
“Already, with polls barely open”
Open long enough for ITV to effectively call it for Kerry at 18:30 GMT (13:00 Eastern?)
Richard:
“Remember the examples from the USSR. Socialism might work, but not the model adopted there. If Kerry’s election is the failure you hope for then it’ll be because of the military industrial complex, the media and so on.”
Are there still idiots in the world who believe socialism can work? Come on, name one country where it worked. Just one. Any of you.
Military industrial complex? Get your head out of Michael Moore’s arse.
You can concieve of the media contributing to a failed Kerry presidency? Which media? Apart from Fox can you name hust one anti-Kerry element of the MSM?
Pete: Sweden. Whatever you say about it, it hasn’t turned into a degenerate hellhole. Are you confusing socialism with communism, perchance?
PD:
Short and brief – the point is the west is involved in a war against islamofascism. Apart from some in the US and Britain no-one seems to realise it. Our enemy is implacable and no negotiation is possible: their view is that we surrender to their will or we die. Bush has led the fight to destroy this enemy. What is needed now for you and your children is a thumping Bush win. It sends a clear message to our enemy: we have the stomach for the fight and will crush you ……
cont’d …
What does a Kerry win say? Not to you but to every terrorist and terrorist sympathiser between North Africa and Indonesia? It says the west has lost. It says the people of the US don’t have the stomach for the fight. It says they don’t have the will to win. It means the AK-47s will be dusted down and the semtex waistcoats strapped in ever greater numbers. It means your children will be guaranteed to suffer by our enemies because this current generation has said “no more.”
cont’d …
As Susan has pointed out, our enemies (by the way, to them you are as much of an infidel as I am. You are as marked for death as I am) will very soon be nuclear armed. The Soviets were rational enough to realise that a first strike against us guaranteed their end. Our current enemies are death cultists who would have no such brake on their actions. If the verdict of the American people is for Kerry then so be it. Its their right and choice. Bush will hear their verdict and pack his bags. However our enemies will listen and regard it as confirmation they can and will bring down the great satan. Generations more will suffer if Kerry is chosen.
While I’m still here …
john b – socialism and communism are simply shades of the same statist thing. Reminder – I have libertarian tendencies so most political systems are socialist to me. For a concise, clear, to-the-point history of modern economic history in Sweden nothing beats “Eat the Rich” by P J O’Rourke.
REJOICE!!!
Seems some of you were taken in by the delusional Newsnight propaganda.
It would now appear that Bush is heading for four more years.
I’m not really a Bush supporter, but I hate all the slander against him by the lying Left e.g. the Lying Lancet article. Moreover, I believe he and his Neo Con friends are fundamentally right that there is no security for us until we have turned every last patch of this planet into a functioning democracy.
David Field
Susan, we’ve won. You can come out of the cupboard now.
“It means your children will be guaranteed to suffer by our enemies because this current generation has said “no more.” Oh please, I’m sure Osama is delighted with the (probable) result. The US have re-elected a world-wide figure of hate and furthermore a Fundamentalist Christian. For someone seeking to polarise Muslims v. Christians, I’m sure it’s exactly what he wanted. And before Pete tells me I’m an infidel, I’d like to say that I know, but I don’t subscribe to the view that that the ultimate aim of most Islamic terrorist groups is to destroy the west no matter how much irrational scaremongering you subject the people on this board to.
Err, can’t really see Iran invading Iraq to be honest. I don’t think any President would let that happen, especially after all the effort put into Iraq so far.
And didn’t Kerry say in the debates that nuclear weapons was one of the most important issues in the future? I’m sure he’s just as concerned about Iran as you are.
Pete: not the point. Sweden is wealthy and broadly happy, whatever PJ’s rantings might be. And it’s socialist/communist/whatever.