starting with the usual preamble about Bush and Kerry being “neck and neck” and the election being “too close to call”. This may be true, but most of the polls I’ve seen have Bush leading consistently by a point or two or three. Whilst this is certainly within the margin of error, I can’t help thinking that were the position reversed the BBC would be reminding us at each Bulletin that ‘Kerry is just ahead’ and ‘leading the race’ rather than pushing the “neck and neck” line so desperately.
Among the BBC Ten O’Clock News (WMV, 256Kbps) election coverage was this live exchange (starts 5’45” into the bulletin) between Huw Edwards in Washington and Matt Frei in Florida:
Huw Edwards: Well now let’s get the latest word from both campaigns tonight. Matt is in Florida and Gavin [Hewitt] is in New Hampshire. I’ll talk to you first Matt. Erm, What is the message that President Bush is now focusing on in these last forty-eight-hours?
Matt Frei: Vote, vote, vote and please vote for me, and do it even if you’re a discerning Democrat or an Independent, not just the conservative base of the Republican Party. That’s really what he’s been saying the last few days. I went to a rally this morning and people don’t really listen to what he’s got to say any more, they just listen to that plea, go and vote. Two interesting details here – tomorrow, the President will go to six states in one day, the final swing. And, as we speak, Dick Cheney, erm, who’s not in the best of health, er, at the best of times, is travelling eight hours to Hawaii to be there for one and a half hours to persuade people in a place that wasn’t even a swing state until last week. Conclusion: they are trying to get hold of every single vote they can. Outwardly they’re very confident. Inwardly they’re worried.
Huw Edwards: Well, I was going to ask you about the inward feelings, the private feelings Matt, um, what are they telling you about the patterns of voting that they’re likely to see on Tuesday and which areas concern them most?
Matt Frei: Take this queue that’s dwindling behind me now. This has been a queue that’s been here all day long. People have waited for five or six hours. They have never seen a turn out like this before. This doesn’t bode terribly well for Tuesday to be honest, because one senior election official told us he doesn’t think they can actually accomodate all the voters without opening the polls later, so this is potentially a huge nightmare of recounted ballots, of disputes. There are thousands of lawyers in Florida as well as in Ohio and many other states who are waiting to pounce on this election if there is, if the election result is within the margin of litigation, and that’s about two percent in each state. So don’t expect to see what you saw last time, four years ago, which was a simple recount, if it is that close expect to see something much worse.
Huw Edwards: Gavin, let me turn to you in New Hampshire. We heard Matt there say that privately the Bush team might be worried. What’s the Kerry team telling you tonight?
That was their exchange in its entirety – nothing added, nothing left out. Leaving aside Frei’s failure to answer the second question (instead waffling on about queues and the likelihood of the lawyers – other than Kerry and Edwards – winning the presidential election), the interesting point for me (and this blog) was Frei’s bit about Cheney, “who’s not in the best of health, er, at the best of times” – as if he’d be standing for Vice President if his health wasn’t likely to last another four years, “travelling eight hours to Hawaii” – as if he’s going by rowing boat rather than by campaign jet, and how this is then spun into Frei’s conclusion that “Inwardly they’re worried”, repeated by Edwards “We heard Matt there say that privately the Bush team might be worried”.
Among the spin about Cheney’s health and the apparent gruelling sacrifice of his journey to Hawaii, Frei is right that Hawaii “wasn’t even a swing state until last week”. What Frei did not tell us is that the reason Hawaii wasn’t regarded as a swing state until last week was that it was seen by both campaigns as being a sure-fire Democrat win, and therefore not much worth bothering about. This is confirmed by the BBC’s own US Elections Map – where Hawaii is described as “one of the safest states in the US for the Democrats and John Kerry should easily carry the state’s four electoral votes” and where 2000’s vote is recorded as 55.8% Gore, 37.5% Bush!
What has changed is that polls are showing Hawaii may be within reach of the Bush campaign – hence Cheney’s campaign trip there. And yet Frei spins this apparent good news for the Bush campaign as being a sign of their desperation. Give us a break! If the Bush campaign is as worried as Frei claims then surely they’d be shoring up their position in larger, closer, more accessible states with more electoral college votes, rather than going the extra mile(s) to snatch, to coin a phrase, “one of the safest states in the US for the Democrats”!
