I see that the BBC have woken up to the news that John McCain has opened up a lead in the polls over Obama. Thing is, when I read this story, it talks of ONE poll when in fact several polls show McCain ahead, including Gallup/UA Today which has him 10 points ahead of the Chosen One. Now like the rest of you, I understand polls can be misleading and it is wise to take them all with a pinch of salt but when Obama was way ahead in the polls there was jubilation amongst the Beeboids and this dominance joyfully broadcast. Note the words under the picture – did the BBC run this same disclaimer during Obama’s post conference glow? The times they are a-changing….but can we trust Al Beeb to tell us?
POLL DANCING.
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DV
There has been more polling data quoted here on this blog today than the entire BBC news organisation is giving us.
Are they too lazy to check out the one site where all the polling gets published –
realclearpolitics.com/polls
The BBC quotes selectively – and is missing the sheer size of the shift. There is also a big shift at Intrade, the betting site.
Hi David
Not sure whether you linked to the right article. You state:
“Thing is, when I read this story, it talks of ONE poll when in fact several polls show McCain ahead, including Gallup/UA Today which has him 10 points ahead of the Chosen One.”
Let’s see:
1) “A USA Today-Gallup poll put Mr McCain ahead for the first time in months.”
2) “The results of a Reuters/Zogby poll, also released over the weekend, gave Mr McCain the edge, with 50 percentage points to 46.”
3) “The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll showed John McCain with a one-point lead.”
I can count 3 (three) different polls, including the USA Today/Gallup one.
According to News Sniffer, they were included in the original version:
http://www.newssniffer.co.uk/articles/154271/diff/0/1
In terms of your comment:
“did the BBC run this same disclaimer during Obama’s post conference glow? ”
with regards to the BBC comment:
“Candidates often see a surge in popularity after the party conventions”
the answer appears to be yes.
See here:
“Meanwhile, two-thirds of National Journal’s Democratic political analysts predict that Barack Obama will get a bounce of 4-9% from his party’s national convention this week.
However, none predict a bounce of 15% – a number suggested by the McCain campaign, perhaps in the hope of raising expectations too high, commentators say.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7585416.stm
Or here:
“Meanwhile, a separate daily Gallup tracking poll gives Mr McCain a two-point edge over Mr Obama, 46% to 44% – within the margin of error, but the Republican’s first lead since Mr Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in June.
Such numbers may give the Democrats – who might have expected a “bounce” from the weekend’s vice-presidential announcement and their convention’s dominance of the news agenda – cause for concern. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7583507.stm
and what about that one:
“How to measure the success of this? The time-honoured tradition has been to look at the “convention bounce” – the boost in the opinion polls which a candidate gains from his moment engulfed in balloons and ticker tape. Bill Clinton, for example, got one in 1992 and never relinquished his lead over George H W Bush. ”
Apparently, it has been stated before and I only searched for “Obama bounce”. Have a play with the rather limited search option on the BBC website yourself. Link here:
http://search.bbc.co.uk/cgi-bin/search/results.pl?tab=ns&q=obama+bounce&scope=all
What now?
Whoever wins we’ll be treated to loads of BBC News’s laughable ‘analysis’ of which it is so inexplicably proud.
The BBC should stick to what it does best – making trash TV like its flagship ‘drama’, Eastenders.
Oh, so you managed to remove your head from the Obamessiah’s backside, Gunnar. Nice to have you back. You’re the best commiedian ever.
Hi JohnA
You write:
The BBC quotes selectively – and is missing the sheer size of the shift. There is also a big shift at Intrade, the betting site.
JohnA | 08.09.08 – 9:29 pm | #
Seems like you have not read the piece David linked to either. It seems, that reading source material is not the in-thing to do on this blog.
Anyway, you stated to check “Real Politics”, which I did. Did you do this recently?
Just for your information, there are 7 (seven) latest polls quoted there. 3 (three) are a tie, another 3 (three) see McCain in the lead and 1 (one) has Obama on top.
The article David kindly linked to only quotes the polls seeing McCain in front. I think you are quite right when you state that the BBC “quotes selectively”, as they forgot the ties and the lead for Obama (guess this would have been to difficult to explain).
Can anyone explain to me how the BBC could be Pro-Obama by missing to mention the poll that sees him ahead and the ones that see them tied.
Oh, so you managed to remove your head from the Obamessiah’s backside, Gunnar. Nice to have you back. You’re the best commiedian ever.
disillusioned_german | 08.09.08 – 10:10 pm | #
Hi disillusioned_german,
Many thanks for your kind words. It is nice to be missed. Much appreciated!
Just one question:
Why do you think I am supporting Obama (I assume you him)?
“but can we trust Al Beeb to tell us?”
Well, in this case yes.
Just wait until there is a single poll suggesting Labour are closing the gap on the nasty Toreeez. Will be headline news on every news bulletin for days.
It’s reassuring that quite a few people are paying no attention to the manipulation of the news cycle by MSM and the increasingly bizarre smears openly concocted on the Democrat organ ‘Daily Kos’.
gunnar: You’re missing the point. Despite Osama’s convention and the feeding of the 5000 or whatever he was up to, Osama has been going backward in the polls ever since he came back from Germany.
If you listen to the BBC it’s a slam dunk for Osama.
The BBC have played the polls down AND the predictions were that Osama would get about a 10 point bounce. Fact is he got almost none. The announcement of Palin blew that away.
I suspect that once the dust has settled we will be back to a neck and neck race.
What Osama CAN’T avoid much longer is the head to head’s with McCain. The fact is Osama starts to waffle and dance on the head of a pin when asked even the most simple question.
Take Bill O’Reilly asking Osama about the surge. Even though Osama finally admitted the surge had succeeded, he still denied voting against it was wrong.
McCain will tear him apart if he tries that crap on in a head to head.
At least with McCain if you ask a question, you get a straight answer.
JohnA,
Exactly right. For a multi billion news organisation the BBC can’t even keep up with the speed this humble blog can maintain on new polls, and, as Martin points out, the SCALE of the polls shifts. Still, well worth all those billions it extorts from us, eh Gunnar?
Al Beeb’s not just crap and biased it also can’t keep up with the new media because they’re employing old-style “journos” who can’t grasp the internet. Or maybe they’re simply too stoned.
As David says: You get better coverage on websites that won’t cost you a penny to visit (i.e. townhall.com)
David you dangerously misunderstand the role of the BBC if you believe The BBCs top brass seriously give a monkeys whether a Republican or a Democrat inhabits the White House. The president of the USA is not even close to being the most powerful man in his own party, never mind the so called FREE world.
The BBCs Bilderberger given role is to propagate against real conservatism as much and as often as it thinks it can get away with. Real conservatives are represented in The US government ONLY by Ron Paul and his pet dog.
Conservatism being the default setting for the vast majority of ordinary freedom loving people.
The BBC is elitism in the service of elitists.
Instead of asking yourself why the propaganda arm of the establishment does what it does. Ask yourself why privately owned organizations such as SKY TV are almost as authoritarian and just as acutely dishonest as the BBC.
This surly can only happen if they are either both telling the truth or the same covert organization is driving both entities agendas. Along with all of the main news gathering corporations such as The Associated Press and Reuters. In short a large highly evil conspiracy of public dis information.
I am personally totally convinced beyond any shadow of any doubt whatsoever that this is exactly what has long since been the case. Ample and conclusive evidence for this Orwellian nightmare is already in the public domain, if the public cared or bothered to look for it.
I wait in vain for someone to help to convince me that the above is not entirely so. I fail to see how a self proclaimed libertarian and educated human being such as yourself, can not see what should be plainly obvious to a blind bat.
Al Beeb missed this interview with Obama?
Good article on Fox just now with the special report team. They were just talking about McCain’s poll lead.
They themselves just don’t know if it’s a bounce or a surge. As they said it will take a week or so for the dust to settle.
Anyone else notice how quiet the left has gone over Sarah Palin all of a sudden? Has Osama called off the attack dogs?
Personally, it’s the head to heads that count. Poor Osama, he;ll bee looking around for a tele promter. Fuck me last week even HE thought he was a Muslim!!!
God help us.
In this article it is interesting to compare how Palin and Biden are described.
“Mr McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin as running mate…”,
against
“Mr Obama is campaigning in the crucial swing state of Michigan. His vice-president, Joe Biden…”
Whether this is deliberate, freudian or subconscious, they just can’t hide the fact that they have decided who the next POTUS is going to be.
gunnar
It is the TREND – the size of the shifts, that I was trying to stress. They have been very big. I was not talking about the absolutes, I was talking about the turnround in McCain’s favour. Reflected in pretty well every poll.
I am not trying wishful thinking here. I really believe there could be a tectonic movement going on. A swing of 20% among some white women for example. Plus a sharp change in the Intrade figures.
There has as you say been a flurry of polls today – more in the past two days than is usual. There is a real story in the fact that all the movements are one way, the average movement being above the margin of error ? The BBC are missing that story – certainly in their news broadcasting.
Their story should be – Obama could have peaked, Palin burst his bubble and could now be giving McCain a surge. Stick in some caveats, of course, But don’t forget that it is Obama who has to win some states from the Repubs – and a lot of his votes are concentrated in California, stacking up votes there does not affect the electoral college votes.
The key swing states in terms of electoral college votes are probably Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. To win, Obama really needs to take all of them. But he is struggling / losing in Ohio and Michigan – before the full Palin effect. Remember how badly he did against Hillary in the mid-west ? Those are voters that could be swung by Palin.
They are crap at providing the basic news. Even at macro level, let alone micro level, the fine grain of state voting.
Palin has shaken up the whole game. There are signs that the wheels are coming off the Obama campaign.
For example, in the past couple of days there have been what I regard as 4 big gaffes :
Joe Biden claimed that the surge was his idea. Now that is plain dumb.
Also, Joe Biden has claimed that he is somehow on the pro-life side. But his voting record flatly contradicts that. For better or worse this is a hot issue, you should get your ducks in a row, the question is bound to come up – especially after Obama’s evasions at Saddleback.
Then Obama released an ad saying that Palin supported the pork-barrel Bridge to Nowhere – before she blocked it. But the point is that yes, she changed her mind, but she DID block it, and McCain totally opposed it at all stages. Whereas Obama and Biden voted for it. Which leaves them on the wrong side of the eventual decision – so why draw attention to it ?
Thirdly – Michelle Obama has been let loose to shoot her mouth off again, almost suggesting that Palin is not very clever. That is exactly the elitist stuff that always gets Obama into trouble among the middle ground.
10 ways the emergence of palin is changing the game :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/the_top_ten_ways_sarah_palin_h.html
I think the biggest ways are her natural appeal to ordibnary people, who can identify with her. Also – the media bias against her has been so bloody blatant (just like the BBC) that the media are now pretty discredited, voters are not going to be so easily swayed as before.
And all this is before the real dirt hits Obama, the full truth about his deep relationships with communists, terrorist radicals and crooks. That sounds like a sweeping smear, of course – but there is chapter and verse on each point.
Real conservatives are represented in The US government ONLY by Ron Paul and his pet dog.
Atlas shrugged | 08.09.08 – 11:17 pm | #
Is that so? I thought that libertarians like Ron Paul represented real LIBERALS, not real conservatives. You know – classical liberals, the ones who believed in the freedom of the individual to live his life how he pleases and to trade with whomever he likes on his own terms.
This is before socialists hijacked the name because they were all too aware of the tens of millions of corpses associated with the word “Marxist”.
Conservatives have always had more in common with libertarians, but their preoccupation with such things as religious morality and tradition always carved a clear distinction.
Rand wrote “Capitalism” in…when? The 60s? And even back then, she tore into conservatives for not doing enough to defend free trade.
Hi David,
Have you still not read the article you linked to?
You screwed up again! Asserting that the BBC only mentioned ONE poll, when they mentioned THREE, includig the Gallup poll.
You were also wrong on assuming that the BBC did not run a “bounce” disclaimer during the Democrat convention.
Again you claim bias, when you display blinding bias yourself.
Will you ever own up to your mistakes? Is this story going to be unchanged as the Mock the Week one?
Actually McCain wanted Ron Paul’s dog as his running mate, but the Bilderberger group wouldn’t let him.
gunnar
When has there been a broadcast report by the BBC on the sizeable poll changes? They are not even mentioned in Justin Webb’s blog ? The BBC cites just 3 reports – how about CBS, ABC/Washington Post, CNN , Zogby – all showing significant movement towards McCain.
The RCP poll average is currently showing a McCain lead of about 3%. And all the polls listed show a McCain lead or a tie – NONE of them show an Obama lead, a pattern I have never seen before.That average has been in Obama’s favour for many weeks, I check the RCP site regularly.
I BET the bloody BBC don’t even know about the RCP site. They just sit there reading the AP feeds. And we are forced to pay for their idleness.
If – which is possible – Rasmussen and Gallup come out today showing a further shift to McCain, reflecting polling that is now all conducted post-convention – I BET the BBC still does not report it. A major shift – but it would not fit their prejudice against the Republicans.
Maybe because Justin Webb and his ilk are going through the classic “5 stages of grief” over the Palin factor – which seems to have shot their fox.
Stage 1 – Denial. The BBC certainly talked down the Palin effect, Webb was trying to suggest that McCain would quickly drop her. Trying to suggest there are adverse factors in her record. Funny that – the BBC seems to avert its gaze from the fact that Pbama has a clear record of association with corrupt politicians, crooks, rabid preachers plus couple of unrepentant terrorists.
Stage 2 – Anger. Poor bloody diddums.
Stage 3 – “Bargaining”, an attempt to regain control. The BBC was totally blindsided by the Palin announcement. It did not blindside people here.
Stage 4 Depression. Maybe that is why Webb is not even updating his blog
Stage 5 Acceptance
JohnA,
Do you have a link to the Michelle Obama thing you ended with?
Mailman
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f1984d88-7cd5-11dd-8d59-000077b07658,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Ff1984d88-7cd5-11dd-8d59-000077b07658.html%3Fnclick_check%3D1&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Frealclearpolitics.com%2F&nclick_check=1
mailman
Michelle Obama the Elitist :
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2008/09/08/did-michelle-obama-suggest-sarah-not-smart
The last 3 entries on Iowahawk are a hoot. First he tells us exactly what a community organise is and does, then he gives us the full dirt on the Moosehunter, then he recites the Obama version of the Odyssey. Cool satire. But probably more accurate than the BBC reporting.
http://iowahawk.typepad.com/
Thanks fulla’s, that woman (Obama) seems a real loose cannon.
I would say she is the liability, not Palin.
Mailman
John,
That link is a real hoot…BUT the real funny thing is that no one has manage to work out that Palin was actually questioning Obama as a organsizer and that she was NOT questioning Community Organsizers in general.
I even love how some are comparing jesus to community organisers 🙂
Mailman
The BBC might “miss” the big story, but they can be relied on to big up the minutiae if it suits. Not many have covered this story
A liberal veterans group called Monday for an official investigation into media discussion of Track Palin’s deployment to Iraq — prompting a Defense Department response that there had been no irregularities involved, and would be no investigation.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/08/vet-group-calls-for-investigation-into-track-palins-deployment/
but it was subject to a lengthy interview with the anti-Rep Vet on R5 “Upallnight” last night. I don’t recall it being said that the Vet’s complaint had been dismissed.