Just been checking on the US JTWC figures for windspeed….it seems that the figures are not actual speeds but warnings, predictions, estimates, of what the speed might be……
Click on the picture to view and enlarge it:
The top estimate for the 7th of November is steady winds of 170m knots which is 195 mph……gusts of 205 knots…which is the now famous 235 mph.
On the 8th of November the estimate of what a possible windspeed is is a steady 145 knots or 166 mph, and gusts of 175 which is 201 mph.
But as you can see these are just estimated warnings issued on the 7th November (NR 019) and gives estimates up until the 12th.
The figures are warnings of what might be coming.
Here is the most up to date data for the 8th November from the JTWC (NR 023)…wonder what it says:
On the 8th of November actual windspeeds:
TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 023 WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.4N 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
Max sustained wind speed…..125 knots…..or 144 mph or 231 kph
Gusts of 150 knots…..172 mph or 277 kph.
(So lowered from 145 and 175 kt to 125 and 150 kt)
It is the sustained wind speeds that count.
Hmm…. so the Australian weather office gave a wind speed of 232 kph and
the Philippines gave one of 235 kph….and the US actually gave one of 231 kph
for the 8th.
Maybe I’m reading that all wrong but it looks like a figure around 235 kph is correct.
Which is probably why the BBC is now reporting a max speed of 235kph.
Haiyan brought sustained winds of 235km/h (147mph), with gusts of 275 km/h (170 mph) and waves as high as 15m (45ft). In some places, as much as 400mm (15.75 inches) of rain fell.
Alan, you beat me to it on this subject. I was watching all the comments on this forum concerning the storm and certain posts made me chuckle. You are correct in what you say in that the wind speeds for the storm was guesstimates and only that. The guesstimates come from an advisory body that is the JTWC. There function is to track any storms and advise authorities accordingly of impending storms. They try their best to calculate wind speeds which are based on the size of the eye, which in turn suggests a barometric pressure, which in turn suggests a wind speed. The JMTC uses satellite imagery for the measure of the storm and obviously is track and ground speed. At best they can only offer a guess at the wind speed which can be +/- 20mph and even more in gusts. Without any data coming out from the Philippines weather stations because of severe power supply problems, there will be no hard earned confirmed data for this storm, it will only be guesstimates. It has been interesting to note which media has been pushing the most extreme guesstimate in this and how certain media have latched onto the fact that it has been the 4th most active storm. Well even that *fact* is questionable as there have been other tropical storms equal to the wind speed and those wind speeds were measured by ground equipment and not guesstimated wind speeds. In view of the fact that there have been two other storms with the *same* wind speed but with lower barometric pressure, why was this storm placed at No4 in the table of events and not No7, when the other storms had a greater intensity because of a lower barometric pressure? But what do I know? The Australian weather bureau got it just about right, unlike the BBC who don’t even know the difference between KMP and MPH unless it suits their agenda or thinking. And whilst I’m on about it, make sure you car is topped up with antifreeze and get your skis waxed, the end of next week could prove interesting to some here in G.B.
‘I was watching all the comments on this forum concerning the storm and certain posts made me chuckle’
It certainly attracted a whole bunkerload out for the evening.
I thought it was ruse to get them all in another, e-bunker, all at once, and pull some kind of Flokker-purge von Stauffenberg styly as their accounts were open.
But watching them get dafter and dafter arguing decimal points, metrication and backing each other up on who hadn’t been answered by whom whilst making demands and not answering any challenges on the BBC’s blatant skew and cockups was pretty cool.
And the Chris, Chriss & ChrissL (?) sidebar obsession was just precious (no offence to the other Chris who actually discusses BBC failures – on a more serious note, having run foul of this before, how possible is it to have two posters with the exact same name?), where at one point I was expecting one to claim to be another’s Father.
And topping it off was all ignoring Albs, who seems to have decided copying Kevin Maguire’s ‘Tory Toffs’ with all-inclusive stuck-record whinges was going to win friends and influence anything.
Yep…WUWT is having another look:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/13/deconstructing-the-hype-on-super-typhoon-haiyan-yolanda/#more-97356
It seems that as well as the Australian weather service saying that the wind speed on the 7th was 232kph the Japanese say it was 232kph….then on the 8th the Philippines say it was 235kph….and the US JTWC says it was 231kph.
(Japanese max wind speed, over period 4-11 Nov: Maximum Wind 125 (knots)
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/201330.html.en )
Somewhere between those figures we are told winds were going to be over 300kph or 195mph…..but it looks like that was an estimate.
The Philippines disagrees with that figure anyway:
Mr. Paciente [a forecaster with the Philippine government’s national weather agency] stated:
Before the typhoon made landfall, some international forecasters were estimating wind speeds at 195 m.p.h., which would have meant the storm would hit with winds among the strongest recorded. But local forecasters later disputed those estimates. “Some of the reports of wind speeds were exaggerated,”
The Philippine weather agency measured winds on the eastern edge of the country at about 150 m.p.h., he said, with some tracking stations recording speeds as low as 100 m.p.h.
Whatever speed they were they were totally devastating for the Philippines…..I expect the wind speed is the last thing they are concerned with right now.
Certain all will eventually become clear.
Alan, yes the wind speeds were high, that is what makes a Hurricane or Typhoon notable. What caused most of the island devastation in the Philippines was not the wind, but the sea surge caused by the very low barometric pressure (eye of the storm). It also saddens me to read today that another major selling newspaper, The Sun, in their editorial column stated wind speeds of 235 MPH. No, No, No. It was estimated at 235 KPH. (Maximum estimate), or approx’ 159 MPH
Enter Albaman…how many djinn would fit on the end of a windspeed needle(yes, I know its digital Scott!)/
If only the BBC would care to get it wrong in quite the obsessive detail as Albie.
Still-at least he cares.
Oops. I should have scrolled before posting!
The importance of being H, from now on?
Especially for Steps fans:)
The Strictly Come Over Pedantic angel logging was strong in The Farce with that one, yes.