A budget statement today and the BBC’s John Pienaar’s analysis?…
There’s no good news…it’s a grim economic outlook….and we’re having to borrow £1oo billion because of Brexit.
That’s all true except for the fact that it’s all baloney.
Plenty of good news and far from a grim economic outlook the future is still bright with growth and no recession. Curious how the BBC doesn’t immediately go back and remind us of what the Remain campaign said during the referendum…..that we would be plunged immediately into recession and economic armageddon upon voting for Brexit.
What’s also curious is how the BBC don’t want to remind you that Osborne had already dumped the 2020 target of balancing the budget….after having missed it once before in 2015 of course. What was the cause of that? Worldwide downturn and a fall off in tax receipts…not Brexit then? Osborne was already £56 billion in the red….curious the BBC fails to remind us of that…
George Osborne’s budget 2016 giveaways ‘mask £56bn black hole’
George Osborne’s attempt to woo voters ahead of Britain’s EU referendum has come under immediate and intense scrutiny after he used a range of accounting devices to disguise a looming £56bn “black hole” in the government’s finances and deliver a promised surplus by the end of the decade.
What does the OBR say the main cause of more borrowing now? Is it really Brexit…or again, that fall off in tax receipts? The latter…and why is that? Because Osborne took millions out of tax with the increase in the allowance [something Labour always forgets]…and because he has increased business costs with the ‘living wage’ and other costs such as the apprentice levy.
The OBR tells us that over the next five years the total fall off in growth will be 1.4 percentage points…
the economy will grow more slowly than we expected in March, with GDP growth in 2017 revised down from 2.2 to 1.4 per cent and cumulative growth over the whole forecast revised down by 1.4 percentage points.
The BBC tells us…
The OBR said the referendum result meant potential growth in the current Parliament would be 2.4 percentage points lower than forecast in March. Government finances are forecast to be £122bn worse off than in the spring.
The BBC keeps headlining with that £122 billion figure and making a direct connection to Brexit when the bulk of that figure comes from other causes.
Fraser Nelson in the Spectator has done the work for me, and the BBC, and told us a completely different tale of what is going on to that you hear from the BBC…
Brexit to cut immigration by 80,000 a year – and other OBR observations
[Brexiteers] will be delighted that the OBR pretty much trashes the main assumptions made in HM Treasury’s now-notorious dossier on jobs, recession, house prices etc. [You know that ‘dodgy dossier’ that the BBC reported as ‘fact’ and now fails to backtrack on]
- Brexit will lower net immigration by 80,000. Or, more accurately, immigration would have been 80,000 higher had Britain voted to Remain. The OBR has always seen net migration as a big contributor to GDP, and it says lower migration accounts for about chunk of its downward revision. [Note not long ago the BBC was telling us that GDP was an unreliable way of judging the health of an economy as it didn’t tell you the actualy wealth per person…hence a higher GDP did not mean we were better off individually]
- OBR sees no Brexit effect after 2018 Thereby rejecting the idea – relied upon by the Remainers – that the Brexit would result in permanently lower growth. It has downgraded its 2017 and 2018 forecasts, but has not changed its 2019 or 2020 forecasts. Which is significant.
- No sign of that house price crash promised by the Treasury dossier. If we voted for Brexit, the Treasury officials said (or were made to say) that house prices would fall by up to 18pc. The OBR now says they’ll grow for the foreseeable.
- Brexit won’t cost a single job or, rather, the OBR isn’t forecasting it to have any employment effects. It expects to keep on rising (graph, above) half a million more jobs, not half a million less as the Treasury had said in that now-infamous dossier.
And so on. A far more positive, and probably honest, appraisal of what the OBR says that the good old BBC provides us with.
The fact is that Brexit is not real yet, so the improvements since the vote are due to future prospects of not having to pay for an Authoritarian, Bureaucratic, Undemocratic, Corrupt and Economically Protectionist European Reich.
I am not aware of any evidence that proves that democracy causes economic decline, Britain did give democracy to nations that gained independence after 1945, but any economic decline was due to the instant abandonment of democracy after independence.
So as far as I can see, the evidence using White English speaking Territories much more democratic than Britain, because they don’t have a House of Lords and are not under the rule of an undemocratic Supranational authority. Is that people in these territories seem to be over 10 percent richer than people in Britain.
The BBC dogma today says that “the Projections are worse than the Predictions of Project Fear“. This dogma is identical to the Computer Model dogma. “the 100 year projections are worse than the ten year predictions made before 2006”
But then in both cases, the first point has been proved false, and the second point is an assumption based on the same formula that has been proven false, as one fact is that Brexit does not exist yet.
Today a Swedish lawyer, Ingrid Detter de Frankopan, has repeated the fact that there is no need to invoke Article 50 to leave the EU. This fact was put forward as a plan for Brexit by Bill Cash who Chaired the European Scrutiny Committee before the Referendum, but Teresa May seems to have blackballed Cash and his Committee and anyone else who suggests action of any kind. A tame excuse for this inaction is that May does not want the shock of going over the cliff edge like we did in the morning after the Brexit vote (Crash event), and then climbing the cliff into the sunlit uplands in the afternoon (Volatile event).
But then Jeremy Clarkson, Theresa May and Philip Hammond all supported Remain. So we need people proven by the Referendum to be genuinely principled Pro-Democracy patriots like, to my surprise, Lord David Owen, to be put in charge, as these people supported Leave, and would be trusted not to drag their feet for ever and ever.
The single best paragraph I have read on the reason for Donald Trump’s victory applies equally well to the vote for Brexit.
“Trump won because many millions of people are very, very tired of the moral condescension of people who mistakenly believe that they are incapable of being wrong on fundamental moral questions – despite the relative ease of demonstrating the absurdity of that belief. And if the left clings to that same smugness going forward, then its losing streak is just beginning.”
Terrific quote Rick.
I don’t believe that is the reason why Trump won.
I believe the reason why Trump won was because more people in middle and south east America voted for him. And the reason why they voted for him was because they thought he would be better for them compared to Hillary Clinton, in protecting their jobs, bringing jobs back to America and in protecting their economic interests and circumstances. Trump had a vision for these people while Hillary had no vision just the same old politics that has seen their prospects decline.
But the reason for Clinton’s dreadful, disconnected vision compared to Trump’s pragmatism IS the unjustified moral superiority and self-importance that modern liberals have about themselves in the face of overwhelming evidence that proves them wrong.
Excellent piece of work by Fraser Nelson, putting Brexit in economic context in a way that the BBC refuses to do. This morning’s TV news on the Autumn Statement showed just one politician being interviewed , and it was Stewart Hosie, yes the SNP dissembler whose every word is viciously anti Tory and anti English. Hosie has zero economic credibility . I can only assume that after the immature Mancunian Irish MP Long Bailey had her car crash interview with Andrew Neil yesterday, labour weren’t prepared to put up a spokesperson so the awful Hosie was dredged up .
I very much doubt that the economy will perform as badly as the Treasury ( unreformed remainers) forecast . Anyway, it’s GDP per head that counts not total GDP as inflated by low value added migrant jobs.
That cnut Hosie has no credibility or loyalty to anyone or anything.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3603428/Stewart-Hosie-quit-deputy-SNP-leader-affair-love-triangle-journalist-Serena-Cowdy.html
Just as I’m getting used to saying “legacy media” I’m going to have to change it to “leg-over media”.
What Brexit has exposed is the woeful standard of governance within Parliament and the United Kingdom. Our Politicians have become masters of political spin and vacuousness as they have systematically destroyed British manufacturing, entrepreneurship, competitiveness and ability to defend itself. They have built a rentier state, sold off British utilities and assets, stripped the military, sold the gold, and have become overdependent on London Centric financial services. They have also created a welfare state that is unsustainable and allowed state education to be taken over by left wingers promoting left wing ideology.
We can’t even have a serious debate over the issues because of political correctness gone mad. Just look at the current Labour Party to see how far things have descended – it is being run by anti-west, terrorist friendly, activists.
BBC,
Excellent summary, but I disagree. They are much worse than that !
And the Democrats are going the same way. It has members now making openly racist statements about whites despite them still (to their chagrin) making up the overwhelming majority of the American population. They are seriously contemplating making an extremist Muslim their chairman while claiming Steve Bannon is anti-semitic, which anyone who knows anything about Bannon and Breitbart knows is laughably dishonest even for the left. We have Clegg, Miliband, Blair and Major – the axes of failure – trying to overturn Brexit to ‘save democracy’, and Obama telling the violent ‘protesters’ (actually just rioters, many of whom didn’t vote) against the election that they’re doing the right thing as they destroy property and beat up white people. It would be funny if it wasn’t driving our society apart, and what’s worse is how these people claim it’s the fault of the “populist” conservatives for daring to actually represent people. After all, if these nasty men and women didn’t exist, and didn’t convince the populations that they actually had power and could reject authority if it wasn’t working for them, then these authorities and their useful idiots wouldn’t HAVE to try to reverse results they didn’t like and wouldn’t HAVE to commit and excuse attacks on political dissidents.
This is what many neo-liberals actually believe, and that’s why they’re getting their arses kicked.
I am trying to get information from the the BBC regarding. JOhn Piernaar. Mr Piernaar said and I quote ‘ I am not employed by the BBC I just work for the BBC’ as a reason for his questioning of some US guy in Dorchester lobby re: his statement Trump was racist. This was his reply when the US interviewee questioned this sort of statement from the BBC. I believe Mr Piernaar reply was very interesting and implying he was independent from BBC charter, this although he was reporting as BBC political correspondent. So what exactly is his status and is he to conform to BBC charter or not!
share,
HMRC maybe interested in that statement. Pienaar is an idiot.
Well he has his own show on R5 every Sunday “Pienaar’s Politics” and is always referred to the BBC’s Deputy Political Editor. So I don’t see how he can’t be working for the BBC. Whatever he says when he’s in the USA.
When will the BBC salaries be published or have I missed that ?
I take offence that Penis works for the ‘so-called BBC’. There’s nothing British about the organisation he ‘works’ for! The now more commonly known Al Shabeeb stopped working for the British decades ago, and solely do the work for ALL of Britain’s enemies…..the only connection/link to the British is these traitorous, devious, conniving bastards use the ‘threat of criminal action and prison’ tax to pay for the traitory.
That’ll be John Pienaar, who in his broadcasts invariably called the then Leader of the Opposition, ‘Ed’ and the Prime Minister, ‘Cameron’.
….And whose daughter, I read, works for the Labour Party (but may not be employed by them!)
It think it’s time that there was a full public audit of all the two way links, direct or familial, between the BBC and the Labour Party
Three way … include The Guardian
On the daily politics Patrick Mimford shot the OBR forecast down in flames.
Jo Corbyn didn’t like that and tried the interruption trick.
Then, a very easy interview for that useless labour shadow treasury woman that Neill destroyed yesterday followed by a very easy ride for Yvette Cooper being outraged about Thomas Mair. Probably because of all the extra work she has at home with these immigrant families she promised to take in on national tv.
The Brexit vote has exposed the Tory party as being anti British and pro Europe. Their sole motivation is to continue feeding from the EU trough for life.
I now know thanks to Brexit who our enemy is. The whole bloody political establishment.
Step forward UKIP, please. They have not only my vote, but also the vote of family and friends.
Good to see the BBC continues its unbiased coverage of Brexit.
Deloitte’s predicts disaster so we are told. I prefer to follow the money trail using http://ec.europa.eu/budget/fts/index_en.htm this suggests Deloitte’s is hardly unbiased.
According to Guido earlier today, Deloitte took 24 million Euros from the EU last year. Cheap at twice the price.
Another story the Fake News BBC doesn’t want you to hear about.