Happy Easter
The Long Easter Weekend Thread 10 April 2020
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A few more engagements than the world’s least trusted, or watched broadcaster. Despite, obviously, using selected edits. Just like the…
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https://web.archive.org/web/20200405061401/https://medium.com/@agaiziunas/covid-19-had-us-all-fooled-but-now-we-might-have-finally-found-its-secret-91182386efcb
Real scientists, rather than BBC activists and script readers, are open to fresh ideas.
———————-
In the last 3–5 days, a mountain of anecdotal evidence has come out of NYC, Italy, Spain, etc. about COVID-19 and characteristics of patients who get seriously ill. It’s not only piling up but now leading to a general field-level consensus backed up by a few previously little-known studies that we’ve had it all wrong the whole time. Well, a few had some things eerily correct (cough Trump cough), especially with Hydroxychloroquine with Azithromicin, but we’ll get to that in a minute.
New UK daily deaths : 737 a fall
5,288 new positives ..continuing the flat phase..but sill trending to 1,200 deaths/day next week
Coronavirus: UK could be ‘worst affected’ country in Europe
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52261859
FFS .. there is a nutty thing where countries of vastly different sizes are put on the same graph.
Lets fire up Worldometer countries list
Lets use the “yesterday button”
Lets hid the New Cases button to sort list by that category
– UK is number #2 ..we have 66m.. and are looking at 1,300 deaths per day on 18th April
– Turkey is #3, but it is 15% more populous
+5,138 +95 , they are heading for 1,000 deaths on 18th April
– Next France/Spain/Italy looking at 1,200 deaths per day on 18th April ..that looks like a second wave
(* as I type Spain new daily death toll has just done a blip up)
– Belgium +1,351 new cases +327 deaths yesterday
hang on their popn is 11m
Scale up to UK figs at that is 81K and 2,000 in a day trending to 4,000 deaths on April 18 !
– Next Netherlands population 17m ie a quarter of UKs
+1,316 +132
scales to 5,200 and 520 , trending to 1,000 deaths on April 18 !
– Next Brazil .. a much bigger country popn 210m
3 times bigger than UK, and the BBC tell me the president is a nasty Nazi
yet stats +1,173 +72
scaling to 400 and 24 death for UK comparison
– Eire popn 5m …ie 13th of UK
+839 +33
That scales to 11,000 and 430, trending to 2,200 deaths on April 18 ! ..suggesting Eire is a week behind UK in crisis.
My big assumption is about testing that countries are acting the same as the UK and saving testing for only the most sever cases.
It is possible that a lot of their positives could be mild cases.
What about Sweden, and it’s stay-open mode ?
It’s population is 10m ie 6.5 times smaller than UK
+466 +17
scales to 3,000 .. 110
That’s much smaller than UK ..but still trending to 600 deaths per day on April 18th
Portugal has similar population
+515 470 +35
scales to 3,300 and 220
Personally I’d trust the figures coming out of Sweden about as much as I’d trust the figures coming out of China – talk about all over the place. A bit like their society.
Belgium line .. an extra 1 crept in
Scale up to UK figs at that is 8K and 2,000 in a day trending to 4,000 deaths on April 18 !
Stew, not much point in comparing countries and deaths with Covid-19. As some of us suspected, and we’ve now had it confirmed, that in Europe at least where there is a Covid-19 infection that is not sole or is not primary (ie diabetic patient, patient with cancer) the other cause of death goes on the certificate.
In the UK, the Covid-19 is put as cause of death. Yeah, lazy, I know but if you are a tired Doc, rushed off your feet, it is understandable.
It is also pretty pointless looking at the Southern Hemisphere until July, when you can then start to compare like with like.
What we need is an idea of ‘ongoing infectiousness’ (Microsoft appears to agree that there is such word) because that tells us how the virus is hitting us as a nation. That is also the bedrock of cases from which severity of infection or severity of reaction may or may not then put pressure on the NHS or, come to that, any nation’s health system and hence, their economy.
Just looking at the Johns Hopkins Uni interactive demonstrates that.
As well as giving all sorts of scope for conspiracy theories. Has someone been deliberately infecting the USA? Or is there a link between Covid-19 and obesity? There’s gonna be a Yoooni study, there, sometime – get your funding bids in, folks. One of the statistics that we know about is that a high proportion of NHS workers are clinically or morbidly obese. I know some that are – can’t say more.
BBC get first question
David Shukman uses the narrative
“Coronavirus: UK could be ‘worst affected’ country in Europe”
Matt Hancock replies … “all the better you stay at home” paraphrased
Next DS follows up with PPE ..”gizza a date”
… Matt Hancock “We wont rest until everyone gets their PPE”
Next gotcha journo ITV Martha Fairlie “Will you apologise for PPE”
I just don’t get the ‘apology sickness ‘ . What does it achieve ? A notch for a journo ? Another form of ‘gotcha’ ?, sometimes it gets to the point of saying sorry for not apologising .
Even the most sleepy health minister must realise that they need to divorce the NHS from the government . At the moment someone who didn’t order enough of the right kit to do the job gets away without criticism whilst the politician has to take personal responsibility for not having enough protective stuff .
The NHS / medical profession mafia will be on full offensive using the names of workers who have died to defend against any reform .
As for the government brief – sooner or later the number of care home deaths is going to feature in those stats .
I heard, during this afternoon’s briefing, that there’s a two and a half day delivery period for PPE ordered by NHS trusts. Is it really beyond the wit of NHS administrators to forecast at what point they would need to order more kit, given the trend in their area ?
Probably it is…. but you are right, Fedup2 – it doesn’t bite the NHS administrators in the ass if things aren’t available on time.
Exclude, for the moment, the NHS, which is obviously feeling the pressure of the Chinese Virus…..but everyone is feeling the pinch because of the lockdown……however, there are those others, in the the main, working for the public sector who are not seeing any change in their financial position – and, of course, the glaring exception of the BBC, which will get the same amount of money, no matter what, with no pressure felt by it – and which feels it is totally acceptable to sit and bitch at entrepreneurs, company directors and anyone else who has to make payroll, because they are having to take tough decisions about whether to keep employees on or not, for instance.
I would like to point out one further thing – savings rates in banks are heading for zero, pensions are being crippled by the dropping stock market, but the likes of pensioners get not one penny (they did, after all, pay for their state pensions during their working life) from the billions being handed out by the goverment, retired people are still paying taxes, and will continue to do so after this pandemic goes away – so can we ask all those bitching about how they can’t get their full pay, they fall into the gap between one government pot of money or the other, whilst sitting on their behinds doing nothing. They just can’t be spending at the same rate as they were before, whereas many pensioners have little or no choice in that matter.
And, final ‘bitch’ of the post – Londoners, and may other UK citizens, bore the brunt of ‘blitzkrieg’ over many months – got on with it and suffered possibly far worse strictures than we see today – but the ‘snowflakes’, ably encouraged by the BBC mantras, are reputedly at their sanity’s end after 15 days or so….. jeeeeeeeeeeeeeesus – grow up !
Edit note – the third para in the original did not read well, so I’ve changed it quite a bit – apologies.
Richard – got to admit – when it was announced that there is a two day lag in supplies I instantly thought amazon could do that in 12 hours .
There are no transport issues – the roads are empty – there are 24 hours in a day and a lot of orders will be repeats .
Maybe they just work 9!to 5?.
Reading between the lines – perhaps a lot of PPE is ‘ disappearing ‘ quicker than it can be used – but no one will want to make such a tasteless allegation as ‘ pilfering ‘ in the NHS….
F2
Ask anyone in the NHS what happens when they audit the drugs cabinet: “whats happened to all the diazepam again ?”
Day in the life
That’s get to the office for 9.00, coffee and a chat till 9.30, meeting till 11.00, morning tea break till 11.15. Office work till 11.45, turn off computer (for security reasons, don’t you know). Working lunch with Union Reps 1200 to 14.30, meet with suppliers reps 1430 to 1500 (complain about poor delivery schedules that are my fault) , 15.15 afternoon coffee and biscuits with other heads of departments to get or ducks in a row for the next meeting with Minister. 16.45 log off computer, turn it off (security) on coat and away we go, another productive day in your NHS , I originally mean’t this to be about the NHS but it seems to fit the BBC just as well.
I saw the briefing too. I jumped with anger when Daily Mirror reporter asked about the 2.5 days “delay”.
Hancock took her down because obviously it was the average from order to delivery. Not a waiting time as socialists usually prefer. Like you say, it’s for the hospital to manage the efficiency of its ordering.
For reasons known only unto itself, beeb R4 has chosen the Easter Sunday 16h30 poetry slot to push aggrieved and aggressive feminist Black Power stuff down our throats.
It is really hard to put into words how inappropriate this “poetry” is for this day. I make only the observation that -whenever you think the beeb can’t sink any lower- you will find them a few steps further down, when next you look. They must be completely stark, raving mad, to expect a ‘licence fee’ payment for this offensive rubbish!
“For reasons known only unto itself…”
I think many of us know the reasons:
1. The BBC comprises large number of intersectionalist Marxists who are running with the ‘divide and rule’ strategy used by the British ruling classes during the days of Empire, and which has now been repurposed for use at home. Men against women. Black against White. Young against old etc.
2. By creating a narrative of false victimhood, the BBC hopes to whip up enthusiasm for agit-prop and revolution among ethnic minorities, particularly as the White working class have disappointed them. Just as long as the revolution doesn’t extend into the finer streets of Islington of the leafy suburbs of Surrey.
3. Liberals are racists and actually have a low opinion of black people, which they try to disguise with over-the-top and gushing praise. To this you can add a mixture of sexual fetishisation and a false sense of guilt over what grandad did when he was a colonial adminstrator helping Sanders of the River.
I think we should we should be taking these Daily Death figures with a very large pinch of salt. Especially as it’s been established that there are many deaths which have simply had “COVID-19” slapped on them when the Doctor/Surgeon/Nurse/Whoever doesn’t actually know what the cause was, or where people are dying ostensibly for other reasons but just happen to have the COVID symptoms.
It’s all very sinister and of course helps the narrative to justify the quarantine.
Compare and contrast………………
\\Xi Jinping visit: UK-China ties ‘will be lifted to new height’//
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34571436
With………………………………
\\Donald Trump’s UK visit: What’s he bringing with him?//
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48219557
Flicked on BBC to catch the weather forecast. Clive Myrie says , now, let’s get more reaction to the latest government press conference.
Here’s Liz Kendall from the Labour party ………..
That should be fun , I turned off immediately. I simply cannot stand it any more. Let me guess, not enough PPE, not enough PPE , not enough PPE ………..blah blah blah.
France 24 takes more of an interest in treatments for coronavirus than the BBC
The French virologist claims that the chances of finding a vaccine are close to zero
The embedded video gives more information
https://www.france24.com/en/20200409-macron-visits-marseille-doctor-behind-virus-cure-touted-by-trump
Whilst both News channels are ‘progressives’ only the BBC is ‘woke’ obsessed
France 24 doesn’t go out of its way to find ‘people of colour’
NHS dead : Activists are claiming 36 so far or 28
I’m guessing that some are maybe are not frontline or are care home workers not actual NHS.
eg lists have “Catherine Sweeney,”
BUT she was a home carer in Scotland .. worked for West Dunbartonshire Council and was due to retire next year.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/daughter-tragic-carer-who-died-21846191
IMHO it shouldn’t be safe to send over 50s to houses where someone might have Covid19
Were doctors actually working at 76 and 79 or are they retired doctors who happned to get it elsewhere ?
There a map page listing 40
but not purely NHS
“Medical Staff, Nursing & Midwifery Staff, Allied Health Professionals, Ancillary Staff, and Social Care Workers.”
The is an almost hidden button at the top left of the map
which brings up a category list
Allied Health : Pooja Sharma
Social Care : Catherine Sweeney, Carol Jamabo
Medical : 13 names
Nursing & Midwifery : 19 names
Ancillary : 5 names
Starting to run out of DVD’s to watch, so went onto YouTube today and watched a random episode of Not The Nine O’Clock News from 1982.
And it’s interesting (and sad) to compare the humour, the cleverness, and the take-no-prisoners attitude of a BBC programme from then, and a bBBC programme from now.
The NTNOCN episode in question poked fun (or what would now be called “rascism”) at pretty much everyone, including Pakistani’s and Idi Amin. And it was great fun, and this wasn’t even one of the best episodes, the most famous sketch probably being when a hand-dryer is switched on and Maggie Thatcher’s voice is heard.
No left-wing stupidity, no having to bow and grovel to BAME’s, and certainly no political correctness. The way it used to be. Little wonder the bBBC won’t repeat these episodes.
I thought I would switch on R4 at 5pm for news or maybe even an Easter message – but what is on…
An advert for the Labour party….it is mean’t to be a history of the recent Labour party but actually it is a nice soft discussion with lots of excuses for the demise of the Labour party…and of course none of it is due to the Labour party itself…and everyone wants a socialist government really….
What a pile of Cr*p…
Time to avoid Twitter . Some of the vitriol being poured over BoJo is really something .
One Jaqui sneed Plowman
Claims the Bojo hospital admission was just to ‘ hide’ . Others think he shouldn’t travel unnecessarily to go his country residence .
Perhaps it’s just signs of the madness isolation is causing .
I notice – as well – that people are being encouraged to use the NHS . Could it be suspected that a whole range of specialists not involved with covid now have nothing to do?
And I bet private practices are suffering £££££
I think Rory’s just committed the crime of hate speech there – or what used to be called ‘speaking common sense’, before the world went mad.
That Daniel Hannan piece is so important.
I suppose the Best ‘steer ‘ on the method of ending the lock down will be to see what happens in the likes of Spain – although it just seems – as a matter of common sense. – to reduce restrictions in areas of low population density . Just imagine the bleating and wingeing and ‘free for all’ if that happened . ?
Perhaps the entertainment industry would lead the way – footy and ggs and summer sports – without live audiences . I really hope there’s some serious thinking going on about that . It’s a bit like when the opposition shouts “ what’s your exit strategy ?” When they know very well that the whole thing is being done on a wing and a prayer .
oops new thread started
That was about Naga Munchetty. I don’t know how it wound up here.
Banania
Hey what are you “on” ?
Good question. I have no idea.