I increasingly believe that BBC journalists bust a gut each morning to find the best climate scare story and then plot how to write it in the scariest way they can. Good game! A latest effort is this Richard Black scarefest which tells us in familiar tones and structure that a new paper has established that the IPCC “landmark” report (note the reverence – I personally would call it the “botched science” report)of 2007 is wrong and that sea level rises as a result of ice loss from the poles is going to be a phenomenal 23 inches by 2100. Cue the usual images of Al Gore horror – we are all going to drown.
Let’s look instead at why this picture should be treated with extreme caution rather than being pumped out as gothic horror. First, sea levels are currently not rising. Bangladesh and the Maldives and Tuvalu are all still there despite the false, systematic panic. Second, this paper has not even been published yet and the BBC is champing at the bit to make it as sensational as possible. And third, when you read the abstract of the paper, the reality is that the writers themselves admit that their methods of prediction are subject to very significant error – but then go on to make firm everybody-panic predictions. This is exactly the problem with climate scientists that has been highlighted time and time again on the blogs doing the real work on climate change, such as What’s Up With That? These climate change zealots conducting so-called research want to find horror stories and they do so. Richard Black and co then slavishly and reverentially amplify them. It should be the BBC’s job to highlight and expose such uncertainty and charlatanism, but it actually does the reverse.