Well then, I believe Question Time in on tomorrow evening and given the political fever that is in the air it seems a shame to let it go. So I shall return to blog it live and hope you will all come along for the fun. The panel consists of Baroness Royall, Liam Fox, Paddy Ashdown, Sir Max Hastings and Fiona Phillips. Since it is now way past “Save Gordon” time, it will be interesting to see how the BBC handles this.
QUESTION TIME….
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Good man DV!!!
Good man.
with regards to the june 4th elections, i suspect that the polling figures could well be inaccurate.
for example, in order to be polled via YouGov, you have to sign up and submit personal information to them (so that they can confirm that you are who you say you are).
With YouGov having so much personal info about you, would you say that your voting intention is BNP? Of course not.
Similarly with telephone polling or face to face – would you say to a total stranger that you are a BNP voter? I guess not.
Only a small minority of core BNP voters (who really couldnt care less) would say BNP to polling companies.
The folks who are thinking of BNP because of expenses or the EU or the recession, i.e. voting BNP voters , are , in my opinion , lying to pollsters.
Let me make this clear – I am not a BNP supporter. But i suspect, if i am right, that June 4th will throw up some surprises – on par with say the polling disaster in America that predicted that John Kerry would beat Bush.
Thoughts? Or am i barking up the wrong tree entirely?
nereid raises an interesting point – but (without wishing to sound like Atlas Shrugged) there is an even more troubling dimension. The UK poll itself is by no means secret.
Every ballot paper is numbered and could, in theory, be checked to see who voted for whom.
In the past, concerns about this were dismissed as 'lunatic', 'paranoid' and 'far-fetched' but that was in the days before electronic scanning methods.
This is a glaring hole in our system which no one seems willing to discuss, let alone investigate.
i did notice the numbering the last time i voted. i found it very intrusive and was amazed that there was no comment about it in the MSM.
HOWEVER… i suspect that if anyone tried to use that info , there would be hell to pay – and i'm talking the Queen and the army to deal with.
so , yes – it might be misused. but i dont think we're at that stage … YET.
more thoughts. regarding polling figures.
personal anecdotes : close friend, labour all his life , skype messaging me about communist candidates and if i could find out if any are standing in his area (i’m better at google that he is)
wife: lib dem all her life – voting green
another friend; conservative, voting UKIP, but “dont tell the wife”
yet another friend: normally Labour, but voting BNP. again “dont tell anyone. especially the wife and my employer – and ESPECIALLY my workmates”
i dont know. my experience is a mere snapshot. i do wonder if this is occuring across the country? might the polling be completely wrong?
i must admit , writing the comments above has been theraputic.
it has made me realise that there's another factor that pollsters dont take account of – voters actually lying to THEMSELVES… thinking they'll vote whatever only to change their minds when they see the polling card.
to be honest – i'm in that category. in normal conservation, i would tend to agree with UKIP. other times with Libertas ( whats wrong with a democratic European version of the USA? admirable aim..)
but when the polling card is front of me, and my brain goes "i really REALLY want to kick the political class in the nuts" – well, my X will hover over the BNP box.
if a moderate like me is thinking this way, one can only imagine the level of anger out there amongst the general population. the "boos" on question time were the start – this time it wasnt Muslims in some rigged post 9/11 QT session.
no this was different.
it was everyday English folks. thats when i went "ok. something big is happening here.. to everyone"
and for the record – so that trolls from the bbc dont start doing the UKIP = BNP bollocks…
if it turns out that theres a Communist Party candidate on the poll my X will probably hover that way too.
The French have their anger party already and it isnt Le Pen – the anti-capitalist party
being fundementally a freedom loving type, my X would of course go to the
Pirate Party
but they havent registered in the UK just yet.
A significant Australian politician (Malcolm Frazer, if I'm not mistaken) was once quoted as saying, "The only poll that matters is the one on election day".
What, in the view of B-BBCers would constitute a victory for BNP, UKIP, etc? If Respect won a seat (Respect voters probably don't answer polls) would that be significant? How much space should the BBC give to non PC parties?
They will jump on the "Gordon needs to go now to save the Labour Party" bandwagon. It's not GORDON the BBC loves, it's LABOUR. If Brown is dragging the party down, he has to go. Can't have the Tories in, now, can we?
They'll get right behind whoever replaces him.
6:36 AM, June 04, 2009
good points… i would keep a close eye on the "other" vote. theres a tendency with all of the MSM to bury trends in that block and to just focus on lib/lab/con
ukip is a no brainer – but might we also seen surges for the bnp and the far-left? either way, June 4th will be a darn interesting poll.
I can tell you how the BBC will handle it.
1. "The Tories have no policies" rant
2. "We don't want another Tory Government"
3. "Tory Sleaze"
4. "Gordon Brown has done a lot for the working class" (well except the 2.5 million that don't have a job)
I suspect the BBC reaction to the EU vote will be "disappointing result for the Tories" if they don't get over 40%. Which they won't.
Isn't that how the story went last time?
Who is Fiona Phillips ?
Fiona Phillips
"Offered a job in November, 2007 as health minister in the administration of Gordon Brown, Phillips declined due to her responsibilities to her two small children"
Ahhhhhh back in the shed. How good it feels. I was lonely in the big bad real world without my cyber friends.
Roland,
Good spot. The so-called celeb neutrals are never neutral – always left and always linked to Labour.
David we need you (and Sue…and Ed)
OK heres how I think the beeb will handle QT tonigh. If Gordo and Labour do badly it will be all the fault of the plotters.
Who agrees with me?
Fiona was "Sexiest Female Vegetable 2007" according to Wikipedia….
David Vance/Roland
Now how did I guess Fiona Philips was left-wing ? !
So , it is 4 left , including Dimblebore, and 2 right and I am not so sure about Max Hastings.
Either way, it is the usual QT BBC bias which we have come to expect !
Max, despite having edited the Telegraph (when the Telegraph was a right-wing newspaper) is very soft centre or, at least, were he a member would be on the sopping wet wing of the Conservative Party. Read his book "Editor".
Max Hastings is strongly pro-EU, and believes in man-made climate change. Very much a BBC sort of person.
A commentator from Coffee House posted this. Could it be true? If so the biggest political shakeup in history?
thelondondailynews poll at 6am,
somewhat different to this.
Out of 1,454 votes results:
bnp 50.69%
con 18.64%
lab 7.08%
ukip 6.12%
green 6.05%
lib 5.09%
Umbongo
I agree – Max Hastings is very very soft on many issues.
Almost inevitably The Max is also a howling mad Yank hater, noted BDS sufferer and one time (and current?) Obamanaut.
DJ
Nereid said
"What is wrong with a democratic EU". That is not and never will be on offer, the EU was set up to be anti democratic and non accountable to the people. In addition there is no "demos" in Europe that could give it any legitimacy at all. Any one who talks of reform is in need of help.
Sorry
Derek
Is Max Hastings so wet you could shoot snipe off him ?
is this for real?
london poll has the bnp on 30%
here
The London Daily News in a poll opened on Sunday 31 May is now showing the following results:
Labour : 8.80% (88)
Conservative: 26.00% (260)
Liberal Democrats: 6.20% (62)
BNP : 35.90% (359)
UKIP : 7.80% (78)
Greens : 6.90% (69)
Independents: 5.50% (55)
Other : 2.90% (29)
The results of the London Daily News and a trend which is now being reinforced by a ComRes survey published in The Independent today showing that the Conservatives are stuttering with a staggering 15 per cent drop in support holding at 30 per cent and parties like the BNP on 30 per cent.
Can I just say I did my duty today. I know I'm not exactly voting for Daniel Hannan, but I was in spirit!!
My local polling station seemed quite busy.
just back from the polling station.
euro elections ballot was quite large – about 18 parties including "The Roman Party" which seemed interesting.
one interesting aspect of the ballot is that the BNP are at the very top.
i too voted in spirit for Mr Hannan.
sorry Mr Hannan – you're in the wrong party.
I voted after work at about 5pm. Asked the people there about the turnout. Very Low.
I once has breakfast before a day's shooting with Max Hastings. The cigar smoke he put out was enough to cause an environmental disaster on its own – and at breakfast time, for goodness sake!
Chuffer
Nice one !!!
Generally speaking , I voted today in cold but sunny Edinburgh. The voters were mainly elderly, no young people visible. Very sad .
Grant
The EU elections do not inspire the people to vote. I think that is something the Euro-troughers are quite happy about.