An estimated 31,100 excess winter deaths occurred in 2012-13 – a 29% increase on the previous winter.

What the BBC doesn’t say is that summer deaths also rose compared to the previous year….by 25%.

So that actual ‘excess winter death rate’ is  only 4% above what might be the expected rate in comparison to the summer rate.

Not such a headline grabbing, politically powerful message for all those with vested interests.

 

Things are never as simple as the BBC presents them.

 

Which country in Europe has the highest excess winter death rate?

Answer….Portugal…followed by Spain.

 

Here is a report from the Office of National Statistics

Death rates plunge despite coldest winter in 14 years

Date:23 November 2010

There was a dramatic drop in excess winter deaths in the severe winter of 2009/10, the coldest in 14 years, compared to the milder winter of 2008/09, according to a new report out from the Office for National Statistics. The winter brought an estimated 25,400 excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2009/10, a 30 per cent drop compared with the figures for 2008/09. There were 10,600 excess winter deaths in males and 14,800 in females, the majority occurring amongst those aged 75 and over.

The report, Excess winter mortality in England and Wales, 2009/10 (provisional) and 2008/09(final) points out that excess winter mortality is mostly not caused by conditions directly related to the cold, such as hypothermia. The majority of additional winter deaths are caused by cerebrovascular diseases, ischaemic heart disease and respiratory diseases. Exposure to cold or to influenza infection can be fatal to people who are already vulnerable because of these pre-existing health conditions.

“Although the winter of 2009/10 was the coldest one since1995/96, excess winter mortality fell by almost a third. This is may be because levels of influenza were low for most of the winter season. The highest excess winter mortality in recent years was in1999/2000 when influenza reached epidemic levels in a relatively mild winter.”

 

 

 

Here is the latest from the BBC for last winter’s deaths:

There was a big rise in the number of winter deaths last year, official figures for England and Wales show.

An estimated 31,100 excess winter deaths occurred in 2012-13 – a 29% increase on the previous winter.

 

This is the latest from the ONS:

Excess Winter Mortality in England and Wales,

In 2012/13 19.6% more people died in the winter months compared with the non-winter months, up from 15.5% in 2011/12. There were an estimated 31,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2012/13 – a 29% increase compared with the previous winter.

 

[Hmmmm….a rise in excess deaths, compared to summer deaths, from 15.5% to 19.6% is a rise of nearly 20%……..so where does that 29% come from?….that must be taking other factors  into account….

Looking at the figures…summer deaths also went up…by 25% from 2011/12 to 2012/13

(summer deaths from 20,875 to 26,000…..winter deaths….from 24,111 to 31,100)

That means that the excess winter death increase isn’t quite so bad….if summer deaths went up 25% then excess winter deaths would also presumably at least go up that much…but have actually gone up 29%…..

…therefore, if my maths is correct….the actual, unexpected, genuinely ‘excess’, increase is around 4%

 

Now 4% of course is not just a statistic, somebody has died….but it puts things into perspective…..if I calculate correctly]

 

Here is the main factor, as the BBC admits but then ignores for the more eye catching ‘profiteering by evil energy companies kills pensioners’ narrative:

The number of winter deaths peaked in the first week of January, which coincided with a peak in rates of influenza-like illness over the Christmas weeks.

 

So…the Christmas period…any chance it is all those relatives visiting, who have spread influenza around, being the likely cause of these deaths rather than the cold?

 

Ban Christmas!

 

I showed you the excess death figures for 2009/10…here are the previous years figures, 2008/09 which was apparently a comparatively mild winter:

“In the winter period of December to March 2008/09 there were an estimated 36,700 more deaths in England and Wales, compared with the average for the non-winter period (see definition below). This was an increase of 49 per cent compared with the number in the previous winter 2007/08. This is the highest number of excess winter deaths since the winter of 1999/2000, when excess winter mortality was nearly a third higher than in 2008/09.”

 

 

 

So 2008/09, a milder winter, had 36,700 excess winter deaths.

2009/10 had the severest winter in 14 years…and a 30% drop in excess winter deaths compared to 2008/09…….25,400.

2012/13 there were 31,100 excess winter deaths.

 

If you can work out the causes let me, and the BBC, know….because they seem to be swallowing press releases uncritically and not doing some basic journalism, exactly on the day a campaign has been launched by charities and politicians on this subject…..which hasn’t been acknowledged by the BBC:

Next Tuesday [26th Nov] fuel poverty campaigners will be marching on the offices of the UK’s big energy suppliers. A range of anti-austerity groups including Fuel Poverty Action, UK Uncut, Disabled People Against Cuts and the Greater London Pensioners Association will target Npower in the City of London.

Further protests are to take place at British Gas’s new HQ in Oxford, and at Lewes and Bristol. The campaigners will march under the banner “Bring down the Big Six – Fuel Poverty Kills!”

On Tuesday morning they will deliver a coffin filled with energy bills and a “peoples’ invoice” to German-owned Npower to recover energy as a public good. In addition, a speak-out will be held where those hardest hit by fuel poverty will tell of their experiences.

 

The problem is possibly far more complicated than the BBC, and others, are letting on.  It suits many people’s agenda of course for that to be the case and for there to be yet another cause to rally around that can be used to try and force the government to spend more money on their pet projects such as ‘socioeconomic progress’….and climate change.