Mark Easton has surely been abducted by Tory Central Office and replaced with someone more willing to sing to their tune.
First he betrayed the BBC narrative and admitted that The Big Society, in some respects, may actually be working, encouraging communities to become active and to work together towards a common goal rather than have the dead hand of government tell them what they need.
Now he has really gone and done it, he’s blown his left wing credibility right out of the water and revealed that police numbers and unemployment statistics bare little relation to crime rate figures. So there.
He says ‘Something really interesting is going on’ (21 mins)….not just in the UK but across the developed world….irrespective of criminal justice practice and police numbers, crime has been going down for 20 years….not only that but it is also irrespective of employment levels and the economy…crime rising/falling whether we are in a boom or a downturn.
Actually he has said all this before in 2008 but clearly his colleagues in the BBC have completely ignored his conclusions and continued to berate Tory ministers for daring to reduce police numbers.
Home Office Minister Tony McNulty described it as “a statement of the blindingly obvious”. But is it “obvious” that when an economy turns down, crime inevitably turns up?
Broadly crime in Britain rose inexorably for 50 years – from 1945 to 1995 – and then started to fall. Crime rose fastest in the late 1950s and early 1960s, just as the economy was starting to boom. Indeed, throughout the swinging 60s, police and the courts had never been busier.
During the roller-coaster ride of the British economy in the 70s and 80s, crime went up and up. Recession or growth, boom or bust, crime continued to rise regardless.
There is little correlation between joblessness and crime – for almost the entire period from 1945 to 1970 the British unemployment rate was less than 3% of the workforce. And yet crime exploded during this period.
For the past 12 years in Britain and most of the developed world, crime has been falling. It is a drop which coincides with a sustained period of economic growth.
I haven’t done any real digging for figures but this graph from the US does seem to agree that when unemployment is at its highest for 20 years the crime rate is at its lowest….there is a definite trend of falling crime however it does show that as unemployment rises there are small rises in crime…apart from 2008-09.
All that is fascinating, if true…as it destroys the Left’s case…firstly concerning police numbers but more tellingly….the recent riots….which they blame on socio-economic factors…..Easton’s analysis suggests that isn’t the case ……I would take that view personally….the riots were started by a group of criminally intentioned people who would be criminal regardless of high employment levels and a booming economy.
Which all begs the question…if that is true then aren’t all the proposed ‘solutions’ to ‘disaffected youth’ so much hokum?
Sometimes the solution is that there is no solution….they get their friendships, excitement and money from crime….and prison is accepted as an occupational hazard…..why work frying burgers or stacking shelves when you can live on the ‘edge’ and have some ‘respect’….from those whom you think count?
And if so why waste enormous sums of money ‘saving’ them from themselves when they don’t want to be saved?