Double Trouble



The BBC is up to its usual tricks doubling up on ‘disaster’.  The GDP figures were out yesterday and showed a slight slow down….this ‘disaster’ the BBC has been trumpeting all day in every bulletin is because of inflation, due to the pound falling, due to Brexit.  They topped off the narrative, just in case you hadn’t got the message, with a clip of Sturgeon telling us we’re all doomed, doomed she tells you!!  Not at all sure why the BBC chose someone who has such a vested interest in stirring up trouble to comment on something that needs sensible, expert comment rather than shrill, highly political ranting other than they could guarantee she would provide the necessary anti-Brexit angry bombast.

When the news is good you don’t hear a peep out of the BBC let alone a day long blaring prophecy of coming apocalypse that is the usual BBC soundtrack to the slightest bad news.

Britain is still doing better than most countries and what the BBC bulletins weren’t letting on is that the vast majority of inflation [over two thirds] is due to international commodities rising and the price of oil increasing due to OPEC pumping out more as they failed to destroy the US fracking industry in the economic war the Muslim oil countries launched against the US.

The BBC’s reluctance to admit that is strange as they said this about the cause of Europe’s rising inflation in March…

Eurozone inflation has risen above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target rate for the first time in four years.

The increase in inflation is largely due to rising energy prices, and analysts do not expect the ECB to alter its current stimulus programme.

However Britain’s inflation is due to Brexit, the fall in GDP due to shoppers ‘tightening their belts’ as Brexit hits them in the bank balance…they are feeling the pinch as they also feel the squeeze….

Consumers have been feeling the pinch since the beginning of 2017, with inflation sitting at its joint highest level for more than three years at 2.3% in March.

The squeeze on household spending power has led to weaker retail sales, which recorded their biggest fall for seven years in the three months to March.

The BBC’s interpretation, that this is ‘belt tightening’, consumers ‘feeling the pinch’ or a ‘squeeze’ on household spending’ is just that, an interpretation….compound that with the fact that inflation is mostly due to world price factors and not Brexit and you have a very skewed and political picture being painted by the BBC….consider this…look how the BBC explains away the fall in US growth and then comes back with a much more positive picture for later in the year….and yet no Brexit and no rapidly falling dollar……

US growth rate hits three-year low

The US economy slowed dramatically in the first three months of the year, according to official data.

GDP expanded at an annual rate of 0.7% in the first quarter – the slowest rate since the first quarter of 2014.

The slowdown was down to stagnant consumer spending, economists said.

“Household spending was held down by a drop back in motor vehicle sales from a near-record high at the end of last year and the unseasonably warm winter weather, which depressed utilities spending,” said Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics.

But there’s a bounce later in the year….

The Trump administration may be reassured by the trend in recent years for growth figures to be depressed in the first quarter, but then pick up later in the year.

“US GDP figures are typically weaker in the first quarter, so this reading is in line with the seasonal trend,” said Nancy Curtin, chief investment officer at Close Brothers Asset Management.

But he thinks consumer spending will “rebound” as personal income showed healthy growth and data suggests that consumer confidence remains high.

Close Brothers’ Ms Curtin also pointed out that other data suggested strength in the US economy .



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3 Responses to Double Trouble

  1. 60022Mallard says:

    Wee Jimmy Krankie needs to be very careful.

    Out turn for the 4th quarter GDP 2016 for Scotland was MINUS 0.2% against plus 0.4% for the UK as a whole – so Scotland would seem to be holding us back.

    Should the final first quarter repeat a minus figure for Scotland Wee Jimmie is presiding over a recession. I cannot presently find the preliminary figure separated for Scotland – but keep an eye out for it. I suspect the BBC will not be trumpeting it if it is poor!

    Jumping up and down about independence will, of course, do nothing to encourage private investment in Scotland, creating the perfect downward spiral.


  2. JimS says:

    The BBC is right, I have tightened my belt, but then I had lost a little weight.

    Seriously though, my ‘consumer’ spending has been down. I haven’t bought any clothes, shoes, domestic appliances or cars so far this year in these austere ‘Brexit’ times. Another viewpoint is that I bought items in these categories last year because I had to. Fortunately so far there hasn’t been the need, something that usually determines my spending rather than the BBC’s calls to buy more, (must boost GDP), or buy less à la mode the bleats from Roger Harrabin and Tom Heap.


  3. The Sage says:

    In April last year, the pound was at around 1.23 to the EUR (and where we are said to undertake more than 40% of our trade). This week, it’s at 1.19. A fall of just four cents in 12 months and a much smaller drop than the 12 months previous (and of which we heard nothing).
    We also have USD v GBP comparisons and the BBC delights in quoting a rate from which the GBP has fallen that only existed for a few minutes on the early hours of 24 June and before the Sunderland result came. A broad average of the week before 23 June showed the GBP much lower.
    In February 2016, the GBP was at 1.38 to the USD. On Friday it was nudging 1.3. Again a drop of just eight cents in 14 moths. See it’s easy to play with exchange rates and to suit your own agenda.